Summary: The polls, surveyed after the release of a 2005 recording of Donald Trump talking in a sexually hostile tone about women, show Clinton leading in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. Trump would need to make a comeback and win one of these states, Michigan, Wisconsin, or Pennsylvania, to get more than the 270 electoral votes needed for victory. Trump would also need Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Iowa, Nevada, and every other state Mitt Romney won in 2012. According to the poll, Clinton is ahead of Trump 48% to 39% in a four-way race in Pennsylvania. She also leads trump 42% to 31% and 44% to 37% in Michigan and Wisconsin, respectively. However, Trump leads Clinton 34% to 28% and 42% to 41% in Utah and Ohio, respectively.
Link: http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/13/politics/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-swing-state-polls-2016-election/
Questions:
1. What kind of effect do these polls have on this year's election? Is any candidate more likely to win because of these new polls? Why or why not?
2. How do you think these new polls effects the Clinton and Trump campaign? Why do you say this?
3. What kind of polls were taken in order to get this information? Is it trustworthy? Why or why not?
4. Does Evan McMullin have a chance in the election?
I think that these polls are encouraging Clinton and worrying Trump. The poll clearly isn't representative of the entire population of voters so it can only say so much and still, we are unsure of who the victor will be. I can assume that Trump is worried because he has been saying he won't accept the election results if he loses. In the last debate, I can tell he was trying hard to not cut Hilary off which shows he may be scared.
ReplyDeleteI believe that these polls will have an effect on this year's election. People who live in these battleground states and are viewing these polls will hopefully see how tight the race may actually be, especially in Ohio where right now Trump is ahead by one point. This will encourage both Republicans and Democrats to hopefully get out and vote for the candidate they choose because every vote matters in these swing states. I feel that based on the polls Hillary is more likely to win, but at the same time these polls hopefully encourage the Trump supporters to go out and vote because maybe many of them aren't doing so right now, and especially in these close races, it could make a big difference.
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ReplyDeleteSwing states polls are crucial to the presidential election since the winner-takes-all system will make the little differences that will distinguish the winner from the other. From the current data, it shows that Clinton has the lead in the election, that will cause Clinton to be more cautious and be more in the defending position in the debate. On the other hand, Trump's chance of winning the election is narrowing, also with his leaked conversation about women, his chance to the White House is even more slim. Also, due to the winner-takes-all system, chance of Evan McMullin winning the election is almost none.
ReplyDeleteThese new polls will definitely be reflected in both Clinton and Trumps campaign. Clinton will now most likely push Florida now more than ever since that is a crucial swing state to get in her favor. Donald Trump will definitely be making some visits to Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania in hopes to change the polls. Trump will also have to address his horrible comments made about women which can help him or hurt him in this election.
ReplyDeleteI would consider this poll to be a push poll because it was taken right after a scandal. It's only obvious that this poll would highlight a decrease in popularity (most likely from women) for Trump and in a way highlight Clinton. It should not be trustworthy as it tries to undermine a candidiate
ReplyDeleteEvan McMullin has no chance at winning an election. The two party system, at least now, is too entrenched in our society to have the election won by an independent. While it may be possible in the future to have a third party win the election, McMullin has absolutely no chance. This is in part due to the contention of the 2016 election, with two polar extremes as the dominant candidates. Usually in elections, the Republican and Democratic nominees are nowhere near as controversial or ideologically different.
ReplyDeleteThese polls have a large effect on this year's election. Because of what the media publishes people can often change their minds about who they support simply as a bandwagon fallacy. Rather than supporting a losing candidate, voters who are on the fence can choose to support a candidate who others are voting for. This can be very harmful to the political system and can offset the entire election.
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