Friday, September 30, 2016
Ohio, Long a Bellwether, Is Fading on the Electoral Map
NY Times Article
Summary:
Ohio has long been an important swing state in presidential elections. No presidential candidate has won the election without carrying Ohio since JFK in 1960. However, Clinton’s campaign has placed much less importance on Ohio this year. Ohio has not kept up with the demographic changes of the rest of the nation and as such is about eighty percent white. As a result, Trump has gained enough of a lead in Ohio that the Clinton campaign has decided that resources are better spent in states like Florida, North Carolina, and Colorado. Clinton has not visited the state since labor day which is in sharp contrast to Obama who had held five separate events in Ohio in September 2012. Ohio remains a must win for the Trump campaign but its decreased importance this election could mean that Ohio is slowly losing its swing state status. If Ohio were to become a red state, Democrats would have to find new states to draw support from.
Questions:
1. Can Hillary win the election without carrying Ohio?
2. Can the Democratic continue to contend in Ohio?
3. If Ohio becomes a Red state which states will become important for Democrats?
4. Which states will be most important in this election?
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I think that Hillary could win this election without Ohio, because there are other states which are vital to the success of Trump, such as Florida, which he may not get. Even if Clinton loses Ohio, it is essential that Trump gains other states like Florida, but if this does not happen and they lean Democrat, Hillary could gain enough electoral votes to triumph over him.
ReplyDeleteHillary and Bill (Billary?) visited Ohio this week - could it be in play?
ReplyDeleteIf Hillary does not win Ohio, it will still be possible for her to win, but at the same time anything can happen. She already pulled out of Colorado, but Florida is the biggest swing state and based on the latest poll, Hillary is still leading Florida. However, the biggest statistic that stands out is that no presidential candidate has won the election without carrying Ohio since JFK in 1960. This goes to show that Ohio, which carries 18 electoral votes, is a major state to win, and it is very difficult to win if you do not carry Ohio.
ReplyDeleteThe states that will be most important in this election are Virginia, North Carolina, Arizona and Georgia. These states hold powerful electoral votes that could definitely make a difference in the election depending who gets them. They are all swing states that are undecided in this year's election so far. Therefore, they are very important to win in this election.
ReplyDeleteWithout Ohio Hillary does still have a chance in the election. With other swing states like Georgia, Virginia, Colorado, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and North Carolina, Hillary would have a greater chance to win the election. Hillary and Bill were seen recently in Ohio which could definitely help their status in Ohio and prevent it from becoming a Republican state. If this were to happen it would drastically increase Hillary's chances in the presidential election.
ReplyDeleteWith Hillary having visited Ohio within the week, she has increased her chance of winning the state slightly, but not enough. She will have to visit Ohio many more times in order to win Ohio, which is more difficult to do with Ohio being strongly white. Since Ohio has a large white majority, it is less representative of the country as a whole, giving it less importance and less power in predicting the outcome of the presidential election. If Hillary does not win Ohio, she can still win the election with states such as Florida, Georgia, and Arizona.
ReplyDeleteIt is likely that Hillary will be able to win without Ohio. If she were contributing equal energy to Ohio as she was to the other states she planned on winning, not gaining the vote of Ohio would cause many issues, which is likely how it has affected candidates in the past. That being said, since Clinton has chosen to put other states above Ohio, this will not be an issue, making it likely for her to be capable of winning independent of the state.
ReplyDeleteHillary should be placing Ohio at more importance if she wants to win. Of course it is possible to still win without Ohio, but she would be making a grave mistake to not make Ohio higher on her to-do list. If Hillary does not win Ohio, she will have to win other swing states and will have to hope she wins the other states she is currently putting effort into. Her choice to not prioritize Ohio is unusual, and if Hillary is as reputable of a candidate as she claims, I predict she will eventually put a higher priority on Ohio.
ReplyDeleteNo candidate has won an election without carrying Ohio since the 60s, but Hillary can technically win the election without the support of Ohio, but Should she win Ohio she has a far greater chance of winning the election. To win Ohio Hillary would need to gain the youth vote, but when polled the millennials showed little to no interest in voting. She is most likely focussing less on Ohio since it's demographics have bee changing, Ohio is now older and less diverse. The older white generation is more likely to vote Republican. Should Ohio become a red state the Democrats will begin to focus on other states, including: Virginia, North Carolina, Arizona, and Georgia. Democrats would be more likely to draw support from racially diverse states.
ReplyDeleteLosing Ohio is a pretty huge deal, losing 18 electoral college, the 3rd most electoral college in the swing states(Behind Florida and Pennyslavnia). If the democrats focus their attention on other states while the Republicans focus primairly on Ohio. Then, the Democrats are still in the game, since they can win by gathering all the smaller swing states.
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ReplyDeleteIt is definitely possible for Hilary to win the election even if she is not able to carry Ohio. Even though Ohio holds 18 electoral votes, which is a decent amount, there are plenty of other swings states Hilary can secure. Ohio may be insignificant in the eyes of Hilary if she can secure a state like Florida or Pennsylvania. Not only that, but if she is able to swing any combination of Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, or Virginia in her favor then she will easily be in the position to surpass Trump and Ohio's 18 electoral votes.
ReplyDeleteHillary could definitely win the election without Ohio. There are numerous other swing states, such as Florida, Iowa, and Colorado. One swing state could change a lot for the candidates, but Hillary should focus on winning votes in other swing states, Ohio is probably going to Trump.
ReplyDeleteThere is definitely a chance for Clinton to win without Ohio if she can gain support from other swing states (another important one is Florida). All of the swing states are crucial to this election since it will be a close one. States such as Colorado, Iowa, Minnesota, Nevada, etc are all important states in deciding the winner of the election. If Ohio does become a red state, then Clinton will have to focus on drawing the attention from other swing states.
ReplyDeleteI think that without Ohio Clinton has a much smaller chance at winning the election. The two parties are extremely polarized and she needs all of the electoral votes she can get. Because of her radical political style she potentially scares of prospective voters and therefore needs to carry as many states as possible.
ReplyDelete